On the eve of the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls, as things stand now, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala is in pole position, for more reasons than one.
Kerala has 20 Lok Sabha seats and in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the UDF won 19 seats and the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) just one.
But with the Kerala Congress-M, led by its Rajya Sabha member Jose K Mani, crossing over to the LDF ahead of the 2021 Assembly polls, the LDF technically has two seats, Alappuzha and with the KC-M crossing over, Kottayam.
Even though the poll battle will be between the traditional rivals the UDF and the CPI(M)-led Left, the BJP-led NDA will also be in the fray, making it a triangular contest.
If one looks at the 2019 results and percentage of votes, the BJP at the moment appears only to be making sounds that this time they will open their account. In fact, the top BJP leader in charge of Kerala Prakash Javadekar was heard saying the other day that the saffron party has a strong chance of not just winning one, but a few seats in the state.
However, the 2019 Lok Sabha poll statistics don’t paint a very cheerful picture given that the Kerala BJP-led NDA finished a distant third and managed a mere 15.64 per cent vote share.
While the UDF won 19 seats securing a vote share of 47.48 per cent, the then ruling Left Front got 36.29 per cent votes and one seat.
State Congress President K Sudhakaran who represents Kannur in the Lok Sabha and is also the fiercest political rival of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, has already announced that if in 2019 it was 19, this time it will be a clean sweep.
With K Sudhakaran having health issues and being slated to fly out to the US for a check-up for an undisclosed ailment as soon as he gets his visa, he is rearing to return as he has already announced a statewide yatra from Kasargod to the state capital to rev up his party ahead of the polls.
Leader of Opposition VD Satheesan is another Congress leader who has declared war on Vijayan and has vowed to teach the arrogant Chief Minister a lesson by making a clean sweep.
“The people of Kerala will give a befitting reply in the Lok Sabha polls as Vijayan has gone down as the worst Chief Minister the state has ever seen. This was evident in the recent poll results to the local bodies and even the two Assembly by-elections,” said Satheesan.
To top this all, Tariq Anwar, the AICC General Secretary in charge of Kerala, has already dropped enough hints that Rahul Gandhi will seek re-election from Wayanad, which he won with a margin of over four lakh votes. The message has gone to 14 sitting Congress Lok Sabha MPs to get ready for the 2024 polls and this is to the advantage of the party, as there won’t be any confusion over candidate selection.
The Congress will just have to find a replacement for Sudhakaran, in case he decides not to contest.
While the CPI(M) — in order to put up a good fight and increase its tally — is banking on seasoned veterans ranging from two-time former finance minister Thomas Isaac and sitting legislators, the BJP is expected to spring a surprise.
The names of Union Cabinet Ministers are being heard and it became evident that the BJP is gearing up to fight when RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat made a quick tour of the state and issued a warning to the BJP leaders engaged in factional fighting, to behave and work for the party.
The party cut a sorry figure when in the 2021 Assembly polls in Kerala, the BJP’s vote share went down by 2.60 per cent to reach 12.36 per cent as compared to the 2016 Assembly polls and the party lost the only sitting seat.
So as things stand, it appears to be a tough task for the BJP to be able to open their account in the Lok Sabha from the state. And, with the image of Vijayan and his government at its lowest ever since he took over in 2016, for now the Congress is definitely in the pole position.
