After S&P Global, Morgan Stanley has revised its GDP growth forecast upwards for the financial year 2024-25 (FY25) to 6.8 per cent, up from its previous estimate of 6.5 per cent. The firm also revised its growth forecast for the ongoing financial year, FY24, to 7.9 per cent.
The revised projections come in the wake of an optimistic outlook on India’s economic trajectory, with Morgan Stanley highlighting the country’s strength and stability as hallmarks of the current cycle.
The firm anticipates a shallow easing cycle in monetary policy, driven by continued traction in industrial and capital expenditure activities.
According to Morgan Stanley, the outlook for India’s GDP growth remains robust, with the expectation that growth will track around 7 per cent in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2023-24 (QE Mar-24).
This growth momentum is expected to be broad-based, with the gaps between rural-urban consumption and private-public capital expenditure narrowing in FY25.
The firm also anticipates a favourable inflation trajectory, with recent trends indicating a softening in headline inflation. Food inflation, which carries significant weight in the CPI basket, has moderated, providing relief from supply-side shocks.
Furthermore, core inflation has seen meaningful moderation, driven by easing in supply chains and subdued price pressures.
Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley expects headline inflation to average 4.5 per cent in FY25, down from 5.4 per cent in FY24, while core inflation is projected to remain muted at 4.1 per cent.
The firm anticipates a continuation of supply-chain normalisation along with easing commodity price pressures, contributing to the disinflation trend.
Despite the positive economic outlook, Morgan Stanley highlights potential risks stemming from global factors and domestic uncertainties.
Slower-than-expected global growth, higher commodity prices, and tighter global financial conditions pose risks to India’s growth and macroeconomic stability.
Domestically, factors such as central elections and changes in policy mix warrant close monitoring.
