India has solidified its position as a global standout in steel production, registering a significant 33% growth in output from 2019 to 2024, even as global steel production declined by 1% during the same period, according to a recent report by Jefferies.
The report describes India as a “bright spot in the world largely devoid of volume growth in commodities,” underscoring its unique position as the only major steel-consuming nation to show substantial volume growth in recent years.
In addition to steel, India is among the few countries experiencing consistent demand increases across key commodities such as stainless steel, coal, and aluminium. Over the last 15 years, consumption of carbon and stainless steel has risen at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7–8%, outpacing the country’s real GDP growth by a factor of 1.1 to 1.3 times.
Looking ahead, Jefferies projects Indian steel companies to sustain strong momentum, with an expected volume CAGR of 8–10% from FY25 to FY27. Coal volumes are also expected to grow at a 5% CAGR, driven by rising power demand.
Aluminium demand in India has also demonstrated resilience, growing at a 7% CAGR between 2017 and 2024. The report anticipates continued robust demand for commodities at a CAGR of 7–8% through FY27.
However, the domestic steel industry faced headwinds in the latter half of 2024, when falling Chinese steel prices and a surge in imports caused a 15% drop in domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices. In response, the Indian government introduced a 12% safeguard duty on flat steel imports in April 2025, applicable for 200 days, with a review scheduled for August–September.
Following this intervention, steel prices rebounded by 14% in 2025 (CYTD), reaching Rs 53,500 per tonne—about 5% higher than imported steel prices. Jefferies estimates that steel prices will average between Rs 52,000 and Rs 53,000 per tonne in FY26 and FY27, slightly below current spot prices.
Overall, the report presents a bullish outlook for India’s steel sector, highlighting its role as a key driver of global commodity demand amid broader industry stagnation.