Global experts voiced serious concerns on Tuesday over China’s proposed “Great Bend Dam” project on the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra in India) during a high-level seminar held in Guwahati. The session, organized by the leading Northeast think tank Asian Confluence, highlighted the potentially devastating environmental, humanitarian, and geopolitical impacts of the 60,000 MW hydroelectric project planned near the India-China border.
Titled “Ensuring Water Security, Ecological Integrity, and Disaster Resilience in the Sub-Himalayan Region: The Case of the Brahmaputra,” the seminar brought together government representatives, civil society members, environmental experts, and scholars to deliberate on the dam’s implications, especially in the context of accelerating climate change.
The proposed dam site lies at the “Great Bend” in Tibet’s Medog County, where the Yarlung Tsangpo takes a sharp U-turn before entering Arunachal Pradesh. Upon completion, the dam—estimated to cost $137 billion—would generate thrice the electricity output of China’s existing Three Gorges Dam, making it the world’s largest hydropower project.
While China promotes the dam as a step toward carbon neutrality by 2060, experts fear the project could drastically alter water flow, increasing risks of flash floods, water scarcity, and ecological degradation downstream in India and Bangladesh. The Brahmaputra, fed by glacial and snow melt, plays a crucial role in the livelihoods of millions across the Northeast, Bhutan, and Bangladesh.
The Brahmaputra basin spans approximately 580,000 sq. km, encompassing diverse ecosystems across Tibet, Northeast India, Bhutan, and Bangladesh. Experts at the seminar warned that construction at such a massive scale in this fragile, earthquake-prone Himalayan region could trigger landslides, habitat destruction, and even seismic events.
A 2020 report by Australia’s Lowy Institute had previously cautioned that control over transboundary rivers could give China significant strategic leverage over India. The proposed dam will also reportedly require over 420 km of tunnels through the Namcha Barwa mountains, further endangering local biodiversity and displacing indigenous riverine communities.
Experts called for regional cooperation and robust diplomatic engagement to ensure water security and ecological balance across the Brahmaputra basin. The seminar underscored the urgent need to evaluate the geopolitical and humanitarian stakes posed by such unilateral mega-projects.
